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05 October 2024

FIORENTINA v AC MILAN: OPPONENT REVIEW

Characteristics and strengths of our next opponent

Back in Serie A, the final fixture before the October international break is a high-profile challenge against a side fresh from a midweek commitment in Europe. Raffaele Palladino's Fiorentina are coming off a 2-0 win over Welsh side The New Saints on the opening day of the Conference League, a competition in which the Viola have reached two successive finals. However, their progress so far in the domestic championship has been rather more meagre, with four draws in the first six Matchdays - Parma, Venezia, Monza and Empoli. Paradoxically, our next opponents have done their best in the big games. The last home game at the Stadio Franchi was a 2-1 win over Lazio, while the week before Fiorentina made life difficult for Atalanta with a 3-2 defeat.

7 points, 7 goals scored and the same number of goals conceded: a numerical trend that will have to be broken on Matchday 7 of Serie A, where AC Milan will be looking to extend their run of three successive wins in the league and keep pace with Napoli at the top of the table. What the Palladino and Fonseca teams have in common is not only the number of goals conceded in the first 540 minutes of the season: 7 apiece, but the Rossoneri have responded with the 14 goals that, after the first six days, are worth being called the best attack in Serie A 2024/25. In fact, Fiorentina and AC Milan are the two teams that have scored the most goals from set-pieces so far, with 6 each, and they are also the two teams that have completed the most dribbling, with 51 each, second only to Lazio's 53.

BETWEEN CHANGES AND CERTAINTIES
A lot has changed at Fiorentina this summer. From the technical direction, with the departure of Vincenzo Italiano after three seasons and his replacement by Raffaele Palladino, to the squad, which has undergone changes in every department. From the attack, now led by the Guðmundsson-Kean partnership, to the midfield, where Mandragora is the only element of continuity, to the defence, where the additions of Moreno, Pongračić and, above all, David De Gea between the sticks, stand out. In the first five rounds, Palladino opted for his usual 3-4-2-1, before reverting to the four-man defence of the last two seasons against Empoli and TNS.

One choice, the 4-2-3-1, which has also produced two clean sheets: generally speaking, Fiorentina are second only to Juventus in terms of xG against (5.8, Milan are fourth with 6.3). Palladino's side have proven themselves to be defensively fragile on more than one occasion, so the strength of their defensive line needs to be examined. Moreover, the Viola's home form has not changed: between Italy and Europe, Fiorentina are unbeaten at the Franchi this season and have generally lost only one of their last 11 home league games. The exception, however, is well remembered as it was the last time the two sides met, on 30 March last year.

DODÔ IMMOVABLE, ATTACKING LINKS TO BE DEFINED
One of the most intriguing clashes of the evening at the Franchi will be that between Theo Hernández and Dodô, who has immediately established himself as a key reference point in Palladino's tactical set-up. Fully recovered from the right knee injury he suffered last season, the Brazilian has played every minute in Serie A, missing only the first hour of the Conference League clash with TNS, and is a key figure in their team. Dodô is also the league's leading dribbler and one of the two most frequently fouled defenders. The situation in the midfield and especially in the attack is more uncertain: given the unavailability of Mandragora, it is plausible to imagine that between the midfield and the attacking department, Fiorentina will start with only players who have arrived in the summer, with links and connections still to be defined.

The team is a work in progress, especially in the attack, a department that has only partially reached its potential, starting with a Palladino loyalist like the former Monza striker Colpani, who is still looking for his first goal of the season. On the other hand, former Genoa man Guðmundsson, who was decisive against Lazio (two goals from the penalty spot), is still far from his best and has yet to play a full 90 minutes. On the other hand, Moise Kean's goal at TNS took his tally for the season to five (between Italy and Europe). The former Juve man's attacking versatility makes him an important wild card, and he will certainly be a player to watch in the Rossoneri defence.


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