serie-a
13 January 2023

LECCE v AC MILAN: KEYS TO THE MATCH

Our analysis of the factors and moments that could decide the game at the Via del Mare

Serie A returns, and with it the opportunity to quickly forget the defeat in the Coppa Italia. AC Milan go to Lecce’s Via del Mare to face Baroni's side, who are experiencing an encouraging upturn in form. In contrast, the Rossoneri have to put the draw with Roma and the defeat against Torino behind them: motivation is high, and so is the desire to return to winning ways. Let's analyse in more depth what could be the decisive moments and factors in Saturday's match at 18:00. 


OPERATION COMEBACK
Lecce have completed five comebacks this season, second in Serie A behind Udinese (eight). One example came very recently, in the Salentini's last home fixture against Lazio on 4 January 2023: they trailed 1-0 after Immobile’s opener, but Baroni's team levelled the match through Strefezza and then Colombo found a winner. At the same time, however, no team has lost fewer points from winning positions than Milan in Serie A this season: two, lost in the most recent game, against Roma. From the Rossoneri's point of view, twice in the league so far they have won points from a losing position: against Atalanta and Inter. But it was in Lecce that one of the most incredible comebacks in our history took place, from 3-0 down to 3-4 up on 23 October 2011.


VITAL FIRST 15 MINUTES
According to stats, Lecce is a side that tends to struggle in the first 15 minutes of a game. The Salentini, as well as Atalanta, are the only Serie A side not to score in the first 15 minutes of a game this season, a period in which they have conceded four goals. On the other hand, AC Milan have scored 7 goals in this period; the most in the league. Therefore, one of the game’s most decisive periods will take place right at the start of the match. In Salerno, the Rossoneri sealed all three points through Leão and Tonali; they will hope to do the same in Lecce.


WHO'S BACK AND WHO’S MISSING?
After missing their last game through suspension, Lecce's captain Morten Hjulmand returns, the heartbeat of their midfield. Maleh, a new signing, replaced him in their last game against Spezia, a new option at Baroni's disposal. For the Rossoneri, they will be without midfielder Sandro Tonali, whose booking against Roma was his fifth of the season and rules him out of this weekend's fixture through suspension. He will be replaced by either Tommaso Pobega or Aster Vranckx. Since Wednesday's Coppa Italia fixture, Junior Messias has returned to the squad, offering the coach another final third option, either from the start of off the bench.


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